I Like To Move It, Move It

So Microsoft have finally revealed their Project Natal to the world, now with a name (Kinect) and a list of games.

Oddly enough, when they first announced this thing, my reaction (as a non-360 owner) was simply "that's nice, but it's a bit like the EyeToy, isn't it?" Lo and behold, what have we got? An EyeToy with Wii games. OMG THE WORLD OF GAMING HAS CHANGED FOREVER!!!!!!!!

Or not. No, you see, despite Microsoft trying desperately for the past year to convince us that in the future, we'll all be flinging ourselves around the room to control a game, all I ever saw was a knockoff. A potentially expensive failure of a knockoff at that. And now it's been officially unveiled? Well, I was right. Apart from the "failure" bit, we've yet to see that.

Now, for those who think I'm some pathetic Sony fanboy who'll just ridicule anything Microsoft do, let me explain. The reason I believe Kinect will fail (and, on that note, PS Move too) is simply because the Wii already exists. Let me give you some insight into the difference between the casual and "hardcore" gaming markets.

The hardcore gaming market tends to be more swayed by industry press, websites, forums, a multitude of sources for their desired gaming purchases. A hardcore gamer will evaluate every reason why they should buy a console. Sometimes they will own more than one, because they saw games on each they felt the need to play (and this is why the 360 is the only current console I've got no interest in - none of the games stand out to me). The core market is very likely to spend hours playing a game, immersing themselves in that world. However, more core gamers, after the Wii's now poor showing of games (well, until Metroid Other M and that new Zelda come out most likely), are bored of motion controls and therefore are likely to pass Kinect by, since the core market is Microsoft's main audience.

But, I hear you cry, it's not for the core gamers, it's for the casual market! Well yes, but let me tell you about the casual market. They're exactly that. Casual. They're not the sort of people who'll play games for hours on end. They're also less likely to spend hours browsing through gaming news to find something fun to play. They're likely to pick up games that are deemed "simple" and "pointless" by the core market. But the casual market is influenced by another factor. Money.

The Wii succeeded because it positioned itself as a fun family console, something you can gather round and make yourself look like a fool in the company of others. But it was also cheap. It's consistently been the cheapest console of this generation. Its lack of HD graphics, technical pizzazz or anything else has kept costs down, and the casual market (as well as many of the core market) bought it.

In the past 4 years since the Wii's release, its price, like all consoles, has dropped. It's now roughly £100. By contrast, the 360 is already £20 more. Not a huge difference, but in today's economic climate, the casual market will pay attention to that. And of course, that's before Kinect's separate cost is thrown into the mix, which is estimated at another £100 on top of the console.

In short, the casual gaming market, when faced with the Wii and Kinect, will buy the Wii, simply for the price tag. And that's before you realise that pretty much everyone and his dog now has a Wii, so the casual market's basically going "why should I get a Kinect? I already have a Wii, it's exactly the same, right?"

Yes, MS may argue the subtle differences between the two, but at the end of the day, the casual market they're aiming at won't notice or care. Again, they'll see similar looking games and the cheaper Wii price tag and go there. It's not rocket science, it's basic understanding of consumer tastes.

And oh, the games. Yeah, this won't help its case. We have a sports game and a fitness simulator. Hm, sounds oddly familiar to me, where've I heard of games like that before? On top of that, we have a dance sim (while the godawful sounding Just Dance has already been riding in the charts for months for, oh that's right, the Wii) and a virtual pet (didn't Sony already release exactly that only a few months back in the form of the EyePet?). There's also Sonic Riders (which was always shit) but without a controller. OOH I'M SO THRILLED!

Again, I expect to repeat the same argument with the PS Move's lineup announcement, since that's largely the same thing too. It's just further proof that motion controls really do have little to nothing left to offer the gaming world. The Wii ran out of ideas, and it doesn't seem like Microsoft or Sony are going to provide any new ones. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for awkward fiddly motion controls and back to a focus on much more precise control pads.